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Trades and
Follow-up Commentary for
April 10,
2005
|
Issue No.
10
Last
Updated: 04-10-05 20:00
PST
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To all
HOTS Subscribers:
Last Thursday, I made the
following comment to our clients with regards to
the McClellan Oscillators: (4-7-05) Take
note of this: The McClellan NYSE Oscillator
topped out at 25 on 3/7-05 and the NYSE stood at
7455. It bottomed on 3/29 at -100 and the NYSE
stood at 7065 for a loss of 390 points from top
to bottom. Now the Oscillator has recovered ALL
of its loss, but the NYSE is at 7227, having
recovered only 162 points of the 390! This is a
technical set-up that our good friend Frank
Barbera -one of the best analysts we are
privileged to know- refers to as "magnitude
failure" and it is not a good thing; there is
something rotten in Denmark!
The very next day -Friday-
the markets reversed sharply at resistance, but
the price action did not tell the whole story.
In the S&P500, there were 426 decliners, and
only 66 advancers, the Dow had only two winners,
our own short-term "leadership screen" which is
comprised of roughly 250 stocks with the highest
relative strength over the past 90 days, had 211
losers and 28 winners! Considering that the Dow,
and the SP are just a few points below their
most recent recovery highs, one wouldn't expect
the leading stocks to act so poorly, and
although it doesn't necessarily mean that the
market is about to collapse, it does illustrate
very clearly the market's capacity to act in a
rather violent manner. If somehow on Monday, the
markets reversed to the upside and managed to
close above last week's highs, then in all
likelihood we'll have an un-eventful options
expiration week, with prices grinding their way
higher. On the other hand, if we get
continuation to the downside, we can easily be
down 5% in the major indices by Wednesday.
There are many stocks with chart
patterns that suggest a price move -in either
direction- with a magnitude of 20% to 40%, is
imminent, the only thing missing is a catalyst.
I have selected three such stocks in this
report, and I am looking forward to next week's
"deliberations."
I want you to pay
attention to the trading strategy that I have
chosen , because it is a bit different than what
we have done in the past, and on the surface it
may appear a bit complicated to some of you.
Currently, risk levels are quite elevated,
however, so is the opportunity to generate above
average returns, by monetizing that very same
risk. If you are not sure that you fully
understand what we are doing this week, sit this
one out, and just learn from it. I assure you,
you'll learn something that will enable you to
make money with, for many years to come
Good trading to
all. Ike
Iossif
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|
| Trade
#1 |
| Company:
Odessy Healthcare
|
| Stock
Symbol: ODSY |
| Suggested
Trade: |
| Long: July 12.50
Puts |
| Long: July 10 Puts |
| Special
Conditions/Other: |
| YES | |
|
 |
| Comments: |
|
ODSY's
price chart, speaks for itself, it's the chart
from hell, there is nothing else to say!
| | |
|
 |
Trading
Strategy:
|
| Nothing complicated about this one, it's
pretty straight forward. On Monday, if ODSY
spends more than 30 minutes below 10.75, while
NASDAQ is also declining, we'll BUY TO OPEN 10
of the July 12.50 puts. If, before Thursday
OPEN, ODSY ever closes below 9, the next day,
we'll BUY TO OPEN 20 contracts of the July 10
puts. We'll exit the positions anytime if the
stock reverses and closes above 11.80.
| | |
| Strike |
Symbol |
Last |
Chg |
Bid |
Ask |
Vol |
OpenInt |
| 12.50(P) |
UPESV |
1.65 |
0.10 |
1.75 |
1.95 |
0 |
393 |
| 10.00(P) |
UPESB |
0.45 |
0.00 |
0.35 |
0.60 |
0 |
304 |
| Options
Expire at Close of Friday, July 15,
2005 | |
|
 |
| Trade
#2 |
| Company:
MicroStrategy Inc.
|
| Stock
Symbol: MSTR |
| Suggested
Trade: |
| Long: May 50 calls |
| Long: May 60 puts |
| Short: May 70 calls |
| Short: May 40 puts |
| Special
Conditions/Other: |
| Check with your broker to make sure you
meet the maintenance
requirements. | |
|
 |
| Comments: |
|
The
chart suggests the likelihood for a 10 point
move, in either direction, and it may even turn
out to be a 15, or 20 point move. If it closes
below 53, the support is at 46, which is doable,
but there is also a gap at 36, that could be
filled as well. On the other hand, any kind of
bogus non-sensical news about the company's
"progress" in conquering the Universe, can cause
the price to jump $10-$20 in just 3-5 days. From
our point of view, we don't care which way it
goes, we just want to participate in the move if
it happens.
| | |
|
Trading
Strategy:
This is the kind of set-up, that most
people lose money when they try to play it, even
if the stock experiences the anticipated price
movement, due to the fact that most people try
to take advantage of the situation by using
straddles, strangles, or collars, however, none
of these strategies deals with ALL three
challenges that need to be overcome, in order to
make money. These strategies address only one
issue, price direction, no matter which way it
goes, if you have a straddle, or, a strangle,
you're covered, but that is only one third of
your problems. There are two other issues that
you ALSO need to address, in order to have a
profitable trade, by design. a) The first
issue you need to address is the high premiums.
It is rather obvious to almost everyone that the
potential for a big move is quite high,
consequently, the options are grossly
overpriced. No matter what strike price you use,
you would need at least a $10.00 change in price
just to break-even. Between a 10 point move, and
a 20 point move, everyone would agree that the
odds for the 10 point move, are a lot higher. If
you need a move in excess of 10 points to make
money, it means that by using any of the above
strategies, right from the start you are placing
yourself at a dissadvantage because to make
money from the trade, the lower probability
outcome -a move in excess of 10 points- must
occur. Common sense ought to tell you that if
you are consistently betting on low probability
outcomes, you'll consistently experience
negative returns. b) The second issue you
need to address, is the possibility that the
price move will be under 10 points, which
statistically happens to be the outcome with the
highest probability of occurence over time. In
that case, you will not experience just poor
returns, you will have no returns at all, which
happens to be the experience most amateurs have
with options. To address all the above this
is how we will structure the trade: 1. We
will BUY to open 3 of the May 50 calls 2. We
will SELL to open 20 of the May 70 calls 3.
We will BUY to open 3 of the May 60 puts 4.
We will SELL to open 20 of the May 40
puts.
Now take a look at the P/L graph,
the entire trade will ultimately result in a net
minimum profit of $560.00 if held until
expiration. If the stock stays in a tight range,
instead of losing 100% of the money that it
costs to buy the straddle, we will get to keep
$560.00. If the stock moves 10 points, we stand
to make roughly $2,000, and if it moves 20
points, we can make up to $3560! Can we lose
money in this trade? YES, absolutely, but it
will take a move in excess of 36% in order for
that to happen, can it happen? Yes, but how
often do stocks move 36%? Not too often, this is
the lowest probability outcome of the three.
Consequently, common sense ought to tell you
that if you are consistently betting on high
probability outcomes, and you keep the amount of
capital you put at risk, roughly the same,
you'll consistently experience positive
returns. Bottom line: If the chart pattern of
a highly volatile stock suggests that a "biggie"
is coming, don't try to take advantage of it by
buying straddles/strangles, etc. The odds are
against you!
| |
| Strike |
Symbol |
Last |
Chg |
Bid |
Ask |
Vol |
OpenInt |
| 50(C) |
EOUEJ |
8.10 |
-0.10 |
7.90 |
8.20 |
2 |
21 |
| 70(C) |
EOUEN |
0.85 |
-0.05 |
0.70 |
0.85 |
50 |
515 |
| 60(P) |
EOUQL |
7.00 |
-0.30 |
7.30 |
7.60 |
2 |
69 |
| 40(P) |
EOUQH |
0.50 |
-0.20 |
0.45 |
0.55 |
15 |
160 |
| Options
Expire at Close of Friday, May 21,
2005 | |
|
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| Trade
#3 |
| Company:
Overstock.com Inc.
|
| Stock
Symbol: OSTK |
| Suggested
Trade: |
| Spread |
| Long: June 40 calls |
| Short: June 60 calls |
| Long: June 50 puts |
| Short: June 30 puts |
| Special
Conditions/Other: |
| Check with your broker to make sure you
meet the maintenance
requirements. | |
|
 |
| Comments: |
|
The
stock is near channel resistance, if it breaks
above it, the upside target is 60; if it fails,
channel support is at 30!
| | |
|
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Trading
Strategy:
|
(Same set-up as with MSTR, see P/L graph,
no point in repeating myself) 1. We will BUY
TO OPEN 8 of the June 40 calls 2. We will
SELL TO OPEN 40 of the June 60 calls 3. We
will BUY TO OPEN 8 of the June 50 puts 4. We
will SELL TO OPEN 40 of the June 30
puts
| | |
| Strike |
Symbol |
Last |
Chg |
Bid |
Ask |
Vol |
OpenInt |
| 40(C) |
QKTFH |
7.10 |
0.10 |
6.20 |
6.50 |
15 |
298 |
| 60(C) |
QKTFL |
0.65 |
-0.10 |
0.55 |
0.70 |
10 |
1,440 |
| 50(P) |
QKTRJ |
8.90 |
0.60 |
8.70 |
9.00 |
20 |
1,880 |
| 30(P) |
QKTRF |
0.80 |
-0.05 |
0.65 |
0.80 |
0 |
564 |
| Options
Expire at Close of Friday, June 18,
2005 | |
|
 |
| Trade
#4 |
| Company:
Phlx Gold/Silver
Index |
| Stock
Symbol: XAU |
| Suggested
Trade: |
| Spread |
| Long: June 90 calls |
| Long: June 105 calls |
| Long: June 80 puts |
| Long: June 95 puts |
| Short: June 100
calls |
| Short: June 85 puts |
| Special
Conditions/Other: |
| YES | |
|
 |
| Comments: |
|
The XAU
has formed a "bearish flag" a close below 91.5
will provide signal continuation, of the
down-trend with a downside objective of 86-84. A
close above 94.5, will negate the bearish flag,
and we ought to look for a rally up to 99-100.
| | |
|
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Trading
Strategy:
|
(Same set-up as with MSTR, and OSTK, see
P/L graph, no point in repeating myself) 1.
We will BUY to open 5 of the June 90 calls 2.
We will SELL to open 20 of the June 100
calls 3. We will BUY to open 10 of the June
105 calls 4. We will NUY to open 10 of the
June 80 puts 5. we will SELL to open 20 of
the June 85 puts 6. We will BUY to open 5 of
the June 95
puts
| | |
| Strike |
Symbol |
Last |
Chg |
Bid |
Ask |
Vol |
OpenInt |
| 90(C) |
XAUFR |
6.60 |
0.30 |
5.60 |
6.10 |
4 |
1,160 |
| 100(C) |
XAVFT |
1.85 |
-0.25 |
1.60 |
1.85 |
35 |
1,030 |
| 105(C) |
XAVFA |
1.00 |
-0.10 |
0.70 |
0.95 |
1 |
991 |
| 85(P) |
XAURQ |
1.20 |
0.00 |
1.20 |
1.45 |
0 |
797 |
| 80(P) |
XAURP |
0.50 |
-0.10 |
0.40 |
0.60 |
6 |
2,180 |
| 95(P) |
XAURS |
5.40 |
0.60 |
5.00 |
5.40 |
14 |
1,586 |
| Options
Expire at Close of Friday, June 18,
2005 | |
|
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|
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|
Positions as of the Close of Friday,
April 8th, 2005
| Symbol |
Last |
Change (ECN) |
Paid |
Value
(ECN) |
Gain (ECN) |
Cnts |
Name |
| CASH |
|
|
|
|
$51,831.40 |
|
|
|
|
| GOQPY |
0.05 |
-0.05 |
50.00% |
1.95 |
$10.00 |
($395.00) |
-98.99% |
2 |
GOOG Apr5 160 P |
| LSSPI |
5.10 |
0.00 |
0.00% |
6.60 |
$510.00 |
($150.00) |
-22.79% |
1 |
LSS Apr5 45 P |
| OIQDG |
0.10 |
0.00 |
0.00% |
1.20 |
$40.00 |
($455.00) |
-94.79% |
4 |
ONXX Apr5 35 C |
| OIQDH |
0.05 |
0.00 |
0.00% |
0.30 |
$50.00 |
($265.00) |
-88.33% |
10 |
ONXX Apr5 40 C |
| XAUPS |
2.80 |
0.10 |
4.35% |
2.90 |
$5,600.00 |
($200.00) |
-17.74% |
20 |
XAU Apr5 95 P |
| XAUDS |
0.35 |
-0.25 |
-41.67% |
0.52 |
$525.00 |
($270.00) |
-33.96% |
15 |
XAU Apr5 95 C |
| XAUDR |
2.80 |
-0.40 |
11.11% |
3.31 |
($1,400.00) |
$240.00 |
2.40% |
-5 |
XAU Apr5 90 C |
| Total: |
$57,166.40 |
$7,166.40 |
14.33% |
|
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|
Please note the
following: 1) The recommended starting
capital is $50,000.00. 2) All
transactions include transaction
costs
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