Trades and Follow-up Commentary for

April 10, 2005

 
Issue No. 10

Last Updated: 04-10-05 20:00 PST


Options Strategist and Editor:  Ike Iossif, President & CIO, Aegean Capital Group, Inc.

To all HOTS Subscribers:

Last Thursday, I made the following comment to our clients with regards to the McClellan Oscillators:
(4-7-05) Take note of this: The McClellan NYSE Oscillator topped out at 25 on 3/7-05 and the NYSE stood at 7455. It bottomed on 3/29 at -100 and the NYSE stood at 7065 for a loss of 390 points from top to bottom. Now the Oscillator has recovered ALL of its loss, but the NYSE is at 7227, having recovered only 162 points of the 390! This is a technical set-up that our good friend Frank Barbera -one of the best analysts we are privileged to know- refers to as "magnitude failure" and it is not a good thing; there is something rotten in Denmark!

The very next day -Friday- the markets reversed sharply at resistance, but the price action did not tell the whole story. In the S&P500, there were 426 decliners, and only 66 advancers, the Dow had only two winners, our own short-term "leadership screen" which is comprised of roughly 250 stocks with the highest relative strength over the past 90 days, had 211 losers and 28 winners! Considering that the Dow, and the SP are just a few points below their most recent recovery highs, one wouldn't expect the leading stocks to act so poorly, and although it doesn't necessarily mean that the market is about to collapse, it does illustrate very clearly the market's capacity to act in a rather violent manner. If somehow on Monday, the markets reversed to the upside and managed to close above last week's highs, then in all likelihood we'll have an un-eventful options expiration week, with prices grinding their way higher. On the other hand, if we get continuation to the downside, we can easily be down 5% in the major indices by Wednesday.

There are many stocks with chart patterns that suggest a price move -in either direction- with a magnitude of 20% to 40%, is imminent, the only thing missing is a catalyst. I have selected three such stocks in this report, and I am looking forward to next week's "deliberations."

I want you to pay attention to the trading strategy that I have chosen , because it is a bit different than what we have done in the past, and on the surface it may appear a bit complicated to some of you. Currently, risk levels are quite elevated, however, so is the opportunity to generate above average returns, by monetizing that very same risk. If you are not sure that you fully understand what we are doing this week, sit this one out, and just learn from it. I assure you, you'll learn something that will enable you to make money with, for many years to come



Good trading to all.
Ike Iossif


Trade #1
Company: Odessy Healthcare
Stock Symbol:   ODSY
Suggested Trade:
Long: July 12.50 Puts
Long: July 10 Puts
Special Conditions/Other:
YES

Comments:

ODSY's price chart, speaks for itself, it's the chart from hell, there is nothing else to say!

Trading Strategy:
Nothing complicated about this one, it's pretty straight forward. On Monday, if ODSY spends more than 30 minutes below 10.75, while NASDAQ is also declining, we'll BUY TO OPEN 10 of the July 12.50 puts. If, before Thursday OPEN, ODSY ever closes below 9, the next day, we'll BUY TO OPEN 20 contracts of the July 10 puts. We'll exit the positions anytime if the stock reverses and closes above 11.80.
Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol OpenInt
12.50(P) UPESV 1.65 0.10 1.75 1.95 0 393
10.00(P) UPESB 0.45 0.00 0.35 0.60 0 304
Options Expire at Close of Friday, July 15, 2005
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Trade #2
Company: MicroStrategy Inc.
Stock Symbol:   MSTR
Suggested Trade:
Long: May 50 calls
Long: May 60 puts
Short: May 70 calls
Short: May 40 puts
Special Conditions/Other:
Check with your broker to make sure you meet the maintenance requirements.

Comments:

The chart suggests the likelihood for a 10 point move, in either direction, and it may even turn out to be a 15, or 20 point move. If it closes below 53, the support is at 46, which is doable, but there is also a gap at 36, that could be filled as well. On the other hand, any kind of bogus non-sensical news about the company's "progress" in conquering the Universe, can cause the price to jump $10-$20 in just 3-5 days. From our point of view, we don't care which way it goes, we just want to participate in the move if it happens.

Trading Strategy:

This is the kind of set-up, that most people lose money when they try to play it, even if the stock experiences the anticipated price movement, due to the fact that most people try to take advantage of the situation by using straddles, strangles, or collars, however, none of these strategies deals with ALL three challenges that need to be overcome, in order to make money. These strategies address only one issue, price direction, no matter which way it goes, if you have a straddle, or, a strangle, you're covered, but that is only one third of your problems. There are two other issues that you ALSO need to address, in order to have a profitable trade, by design.
a) The first issue you need to address is the high premiums. It is rather obvious to almost everyone that the potential for a big move is quite high, consequently, the options are grossly overpriced. No matter what strike price you use, you would need at least a $10.00 change in price just to break-even. Between a 10 point move, and a 20 point move, everyone would agree that the odds for the 10 point move, are a lot higher. If you need a move in excess of 10 points to make money, it means that by using any of the above strategies, right from the start you are placing yourself at a dissadvantage because to make money from the trade, the lower probability outcome -a move in excess of 10 points- must occur. Common sense ought to tell you that if you are consistently betting on low probability outcomes, you'll consistently experience negative returns.
b) The second issue you need to address, is the possibility that the price move will be under 10 points, which statistically happens to be the outcome with the highest probability of occurence over time. In that case, you will not experience just poor returns, you will have no returns at all, which happens to be the experience most amateurs have with options.
To address all the above this is how we will structure the trade:
1. We will BUY to open 3 of the May 50 calls
2. We will SELL to open 20 of the May 70 calls
3. We will BUY to open 3 of the May 60 puts
4. We will SELL to open 20 of the May 40 puts.

Now take a look at the P/L graph, the entire trade will ultimately result in a net minimum profit of $560.00 if held until expiration. If the stock stays in a tight range, instead of losing 100% of the money that it costs to buy the straddle, we will get to keep $560.00. If the stock moves 10 points, we stand to make roughly $2,000, and if it moves 20 points, we can make up to $3560! Can we lose money in this trade? YES, absolutely, but it will take a move in excess of 36% in order for that to happen, can it happen? Yes, but how often do stocks move 36%? Not too often, this is the lowest probability outcome of the three.
Consequently, common sense ought to tell you that if you are consistently betting on high probability outcomes, and you keep the amount of capital you put at risk, roughly the same, you'll consistently experience positive returns.
Bottom line: If the chart pattern of a highly volatile stock suggests that a "biggie" is coming, don't try to take advantage of it by buying straddles/strangles, etc. The odds are against you!

Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol OpenInt
50(C) EOUEJ 8.10 -0.10 7.90 8.20 2 21
70(C) EOUEN 0.85 -0.05 0.70 0.85 50 515
60(P) EOUQL 7.00 -0.30 7.30 7.60 2 69
40(P) EOUQH 0.50 -0.20 0.45 0.55 15 160
Options Expire at Close of Friday, May 21, 2005
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Trade #3
Company: Overstock.com Inc.
Stock Symbol:   OSTK
Suggested Trade:
Spread
Long: June 40 calls
Short: June 60 calls
Long: June 50 puts
Short: June 30 puts
Special Conditions/Other:
Check with your broker to make sure you meet the maintenance requirements.

Comments:

The stock is near channel resistance, if it breaks above it, the upside target is 60; if it fails, channel support is at 30!

Trading Strategy:
(Same set-up as with MSTR, see P/L graph, no point in repeating myself)
1. We will BUY TO OPEN 8 of the June 40 calls
2. We will SELL TO OPEN 40 of the June 60 calls
3. We will BUY TO OPEN 8 of the June 50 puts
4. We will SELL TO OPEN 40 of the June 30 puts
Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol OpenInt
40(C) QKTFH 7.10 0.10 6.20 6.50 15 298
60(C) QKTFL 0.65 -0.10 0.55 0.70 10 1,440
50(P) QKTRJ 8.90 0.60 8.70 9.00 20 1,880
30(P) QKTRF 0.80 -0.05 0.65 0.80 0 564
Options Expire at Close of Friday, June 18, 2005
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Trade #4
Company: Phlx Gold/Silver Index
Stock Symbol:   XAU
Suggested Trade:
Spread
Long: June 90 calls
Long: June 105 calls
Long: June 80 puts
Long: June 95 puts
Short: June 100 calls
Short: June 85 puts
Special Conditions/Other:
YES

Comments:

The XAU has formed a "bearish flag" a close below 91.5 will provide signal continuation, of the down-trend with a downside objective of 86-84. A close above 94.5, will negate the bearish flag, and we ought to look for a rally up to 99-100.

Trading Strategy:
(Same set-up as with MSTR, and OSTK, see P/L graph, no point in repeating myself)
1. We will BUY to open 5 of the June 90 calls
2. We will SELL to open 20 of the June 100 calls
3. We will BUY to open 10 of the June 105 calls
4. We will NUY to open 10 of the June 80 puts
5. we will SELL to open 20 of the June 85 puts
6. We will BUY to open 5 of the June 95 puts
Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol OpenInt
90(C) XAUFR 6.60 0.30 5.60 6.10 4 1,160
100(C) XAVFT 1.85 -0.25 1.60 1.85 35 1,030
105(C) XAVFA 1.00 -0.10 0.70 0.95 1 991
85(P) XAURQ 1.20 0.00 1.20 1.45 0 797
80(P) XAURP 0.50 -0.10 0.40 0.60 6 2,180
95(P) XAURS 5.40 0.60 5.00 5.40 14 1,586
Options Expire at Close of Friday, June 18, 2005
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Positions as of the Close of Friday, April 8th, 2005

Symbol Last Change (ECN) Paid Value (ECN) Gain (ECN) Cnts Name
CASH $51,831.40
GOQPY 0.05 -0.05 50.00% 1.95 $10.00 ($395.00) -98.99% 2 GOOG Apr5 160 P
LSSPI 5.10 0.00 0.00% 6.60 $510.00 ($150.00) -22.79% 1 LSS Apr5 45 P
OIQDG 0.10 0.00 0.00% 1.20 $40.00 ($455.00) -94.79% 4 ONXX Apr5 35 C
OIQDH 0.05 0.00 0.00% 0.30 $50.00 ($265.00) -88.33% 10 ONXX Apr5 40 C
XAUPS 2.80 0.10 4.35% 2.90 $5,600.00 ($200.00) -17.74% 20 XAU Apr5 95 P
XAUDS 0.35 -0.25 -41.67% 0.52 $525.00 ($270.00) -33.96% 15 XAU Apr5 95 C
XAUDR 2.80 -0.40 11.11% 3.31 ($1,400.00) $240.00 2.40% -5 XAU Apr5 90 C
Total: $57,166.40 $7,166.40 14.33%  


Please note the following:
1) The recommended starting capital is $50,000.00.
2) All transactions include transaction costs 

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