For Thur. 6-24-99
The SP500 has initial support at the 1300 level, if it penetrates it the next stop is 1275. Should it break convincingly thru 1275 (we think at this point that's probably unlikely) then we're looking at 1210 to 1225. Is it going to happen? At this junction professionals will wait for the market to answer this question. We're 100% in cash.

For Wed. 6-23-99
It appears that the emerging picture clearly points downward! We would like to point out one of our recent observations: Last  Friday the VIX index(options volatility index) reached a reading in the mid-twentys. Usually, such low readings occur before sharp breakdowns. Of course history DOES NOT  always repeat itself. However, this is an excellent time for the risk-averse investor, or the investor with sizable ytd gains to protect, to watch this spectacular show from a safe distance by sataying out!(As you know in our model portfolios we'ew 100%  in cash) We WILL NOT be surprised at all, if, as we mentioned a couple of days ago, the Dow pulls a fast one and roars to NEW ALL TIME HIGHS!

For Friday 6-18-99
The Dow looks poised to make new highs, however "looking it" and "doing it" are two different things!This week's action was influenced very much by "triple-witching" expiration on Friday. We got to wait until next week for a more clear picture to emerge.

As of 6-16-99
See Level Three

As of Friday 5-28-99
The indicators that we use to gauge the market give inconclusive readings with regards to today's rally. Whether it is the beginning of  several days of advances or not, we will not know until Tuesday. If the market opens on a firm note and with an adv/dec. ratio of 2:1 or better, then today's rally was the beginning of  rally that should last a few days. However, if the market opens on a weak note and with flat or negative breadth, then we should have another 2-3 days of downside behavior. At that point a rather violent rally should take place that will last several days (we're getting pretty oversold). Thus, the suspense goes on until Tuesday! In the mean time we would like to wish everybody a happy and safe holiday

As of 5-27-99
We had our "snap-back" rally and now we're heading back down again. This leg down will probably last until Friday or Tuesday at the latest. Then another "snap-back" rally will take place, which should be stronger and longer in duration.

As of 5-25-99
Those of you who have been following us or have visited our Level One and Level Two wsites, already know that  a) we issued a  "SELL/EXIT" signal on 4-27-99  with the SP500 at 1370, the NASDAQ at 2600 and the SP100 at 690, and b) between April 9th and May 3rd, we sold ALL the stocks in our portfolio for an average ROR of 102% and an average holding period of 62 days. Currently, our forecasting model still indicates that over the next 3-4 weeks the market will move sideways to lower. There will be several trading opportunities which we intend to fully exploit... As a matter of fact we do expect a "snap-back" rally within 1-2 trading days, stay tuned!

As of 5-23-99
Our forecasting model shows that the market over the next 4-6 weeks will trade sideways to lower. There will be several trading opportunities and we intend to fully exploit them...

As of 5-12-99
Once John Maynard Keynes noted that  " there is nothing so dangerous as the pursuit of rational investment policy in an irrational world!"   We are happy to be just short and intermediate term traders and not having to make "investment" decisions in this environment. If we were managing a traditional mutual fund opposed to an "opportunistic" styled hedge fund --like we do now-- we would be very nervous...

As of 5-3-99
Today we sold the last stock (XON) in our portfolio. Not only because it reached our price expectations, but also because we feel the market as a whole is heading for some interesting times in the next few weeks.