| Publisher:
AegeanCapital Group Inc., Report#26, 10-21-2001, Page
2 of 14 |
 
Our
proprietary forecasting model, has
produced two scenarios for the next 3-5 weeks.
On the bullish side we have a target of 1150,
and a probability of 39.27% to materialize, and
on the bearish side we have a target of 955 and
a probability of 40.82% to materialize. NOTICE
that the ratio between the bearish and the
bullish probability stands at 1.04:1
( 40.82% divided by 39.27%) thus producing a
"neutral" signal. (The red line
represents the most likely price action to take
place on the way to reach the target price.) The
ratio means that it is just as likely -at the present time-
for the index to fall to 955 as it is to rise
to 1150.
 
Our
proprietary forecasting model, has
produced two scenarios for the next 3-5 weeks.
On the bullish side we have a target of 1850,
and a probability of 40.83% to materialize, and
on the bearish side we have a target of 1500 and
a probability of 41.65% to materialize. NOTICE
that the ratio between the bearish and the
bullish probability stands at 1.02:1
(41.65% divided by 40.838%) thus producing a
"neutral" signal. (The red line
represents the most likely price action to take
place on the way to reach the target price. The
ratio means that it is just as likely likely -at the present time-
for the index to fall to 1500 as it is
to rise to 1850.
Our
Market Positions:
Dow: Neutral,SP500:Neutral
NASDAQ:Neutral
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