ATTENTION: Our "market timing" methodology is based on assessing "risk" at any given time, and make decisions based upon a "return to risk" ratio. We rate the market based upon our own "return to risk" ratios that we have determined to be appropriate for our investment objectives.

Investors need to define their own risk/reward criteria by which they make "timimg" decisions, and those criteria must be selected carefully and in accordance to their own tolerance and objectives. For example: Is a 40.83% probability sufficient enough for an investor to go long/short? or, is it not? If it is, the investor should go long/short, and if it is not, the investor should  not go long/short!  For some investors 30% may be enough, for others 60%, or, 70% or even 90% may be the right number. Professional investors make decisions based upon risk/reward parameters. Investors following a market timing methodology that is based on "risk"  must set their own parameters and then make decisions accordingly. 

(Charts and targets updated on 10-26-02) Our intermediate forecasting model,  has produced two scenarios for the next 6-8 weeks. On the bullish side we have a target of 975, and a probability of 37.16% to materialize, and on the bearish side we have a target of 720 and a probability of 51.18% to materialize. NOTICE that the ratio between the bearish and the bullish probability stands at   1.37:1 ( 51.18% divided by 37.16%) thus  producing a "sell"  signal. (The red line represents the most likely price action to take place on the way to reach the target price.) The ratio means that it is almost one and a half times more  likely -at the present time- for the index to fall to 720 than it is to rise to 960. It should be noted that a 1.3:1 ratio indicates a weak signal. However, notice that from current levels the projected upside target is 8.6% higher, while the projected downside target is 19.82%.

(Charts and targets updated on 10-26-02)Our intermediate forecasting model,  has produced two scenarios for the next 6-8 weeks. On the bullish side we have a target of 1430, and a probability of 39.21% to materialize, and on the bearish side we have a target of 1060 and a probability of 50.51% to materialize. NOTICE that the ratio between the bearish and the bullish scenario stands at   1.3:1 (50.51% divided by 39.21%) thus producing a "sell" signal. (The red line represents the most likely price action to take place on the way to reach the target price. The ratio means that it is 1.3 times more   likely -at the present time- for the index to fall to 1060 than it is  to rise to 1430.  It should be noted that a 1.3:1 ratio indicates a weak signal. However, notice that from current levels the projected upside target is 7.4% higher, while the projected downside target is 20.36%.

Our Market Positions:
Dow:SELL, SP500:SELL
NASDAQ:SELL