Friday 5-26-00[before the opening]
Our market timing model turned neutral after the close on Thursday. At this point, the market can go either way. If it manages to hold at this levels for 2-3 days, the odds are it will move higher, however, if it breaks down, the SP500 could easily reach 1275, while Nasdaq would almost certainly reach 2850-2900

Thur. 5-25-00[before the opening]
If yesterday's recovery does not continue today -we believe it will- our model will turn negative

For Wed. 5-24-00[before the opening]
We view Tuesday's decline as one step closer to the end of the weakness that has prevailed in the markets the past five days.If you recall, in weekly market update(see weekly updates for 5-19-00) we predicted that the first two days of the week could be real ugly. Our short-term volatility indicator is predicting even higher volatility for Wed., however we stand by our prediction, that the markets will end the week higher.

Tuesday 5-23-00[before the opening]
Even if today the markets re-test one more time yesterday's lows, the important thing to keep in mind, is that by Friday the markets will be higher from where they're today!

Friday 5-19-00[before the opening]
If the rate of deterioration increases today,it means that the rally that started last week has failed, and that will be rather negative..

Thur. 5-18-00[before the opening]
As we said yesterday, the options expiration on Friday could cause negative volatility, however, we expect the markets to continue higher,

Wed 5-17-00[before the opening]
We expect the rally to continue, although it may run into some difficulties as it approaches options expiration on Friday. If it continues to rally for another 3-4 days, the technical picture will improve greatly

Tuesday 5-16-00[before the opening]
Unless there is a major surprise both from the CPI report and the FOMC meeting, the markets should continue to advance today and tomorrow

Monday 5-15-00[before the opening]
On Friday the Nasdaq futures contract "gapped up" on the upside, thus it is very possible that the futures contract will move lower at the opening -in order to close the gap- Afterwards, the market could move higher, or trades may use tomorrow's FOMC meeting to re-test the April lows. Our model shows a 43.65% probability of a decline today and tomorrow but only a 30% of further losses beyond tomorrow. If you're long, you may want to hedge your positiond by selling short QQQ or SPY

Friday 5-12-00[before the opening]
Today's PPI report -if it is unfriendly- could cause the markets to erase yesterday's gains. Even if it happens, it will be the last setback before a more sustainable advance begins next week. Visit again Sat. after 12:00noon PST, for our "weekly market update."

Thur. 5-11-00[before the opening]
In our daily and market updates (see daily updates for 4-11 and 4-18, and weekly updates for 4-14 and 4-21) we indicated that A) a short-term bottom will take place in mid-April and an intermediate-term bottom will take place in early to mid-May. B) We also indicated that the bottom will be in when finally the semiconductor stocks (SOX index) collapse. The strongest stocks always are the last ones to go, in this case the SOX stocks. Since Monday they have experienced their worst declines since Nasdaq went into a nosedive in March (KLAC,INTC,MOT etc.) Thus, so far, the market has behaved as we expected it would. Consequently, we want to repeat that we feel the decline currently under way will mark an intermediate term bottom. It may get painful today and tomorrow, but if the decline continues, by Friday it will be OVER!
wed. 5-10-00
As we said yesterday, our indicators are showing that the markets are in the last stages of completing a bottom. They could go lower - in the very short term- as part of the completion, nevertheless, two weeks from now the equity markets will be higher from today's levels

Tuesday 5-9-00
We believe the markets are in the process of completing a bottom. In fact we are expecting to change our view from "neutral" to "bullish" in the very near future.

Monday 5-8-00 CLICK ON "NEWSLETTER" FOR THIS MONTH'S EDITION

Friday 5-5-00[before the opening]
Unless the unemployment report is way above expectations, the markets should rally.The bonds are extremely oversold and they should rally providing fuel for the stock market. If the report has bearish implications, any further decline will not last beyond Tuesday morning. Please visit again Sat. after 12:00noon PST, for our "weekly update" and our monthly newsletter

Thur. 5-4-00[before the opening]
The statistical probability of the markets falling further is about 35%, our short-term model indicates that the markets should rally from here. If they do not, any further decline will be over by Monday or Tuesday at the very latest.

Wed. 5-3-00[before the opening]
Monday and Tuesday the markets behaved the way our short-term model had predicted. Thus, it is logical to expect that today -in all likelihood- the predicted pattern will continue. We expect weakness which may or may not last until he close. As we mentioned yesterday, several key stocks have come up to resistance levels and it usually takes more than just one day to overcome it.

Tuesday 5-2-00[before the opening]
Our short-term model (see "weekly market updates") predicted an advance on Monday, to be followed by a two day decline, followed by another advance into Friday. Many key stocks in the Nasdaq-100 index are up against their 50 day MAVG, thus, a pull back should be expected. However, if it does occur, we believe it will be contained shortly leading to a 10-15 day rally.

Friday 4-28-00[before the opening]
As we said yesterday before the opening, the Dow and the SP500 have more downside risk than Nasdaq at this point. Our indicators are predicting that Nasdaq will outperform both the Dow and the SP500 over the next 4-6 weeks. Yesterday's rally would had been picture perfect if it was more broadly based. Since it was not, we could not rule out a retreat today. However, the odds favor continuation with the secondary Nasdaq stocks joining in.

Thur. 4-27-00[before the opening]
As it turned out yesterday, investors DID have second thoughts ahead of today's reports. If they are not friendly, the markets will respond rather negative. Our short-term model is indicating that there is more risk for the Dow and the SP500 than the Nasdaq.

Wed. 4-26-00[before the opening]
Today, investors may have second thoughts about yesterday's rally, ahead of tomorrow's GDP and employment cost reports. However, the significance of yesterday's rally is that Nasdaq indeed is bottoming out. Even if the markets retreat the downside risk is at the most 5%-8%.

Tuesday 4-25-00[before the opening]
Yesterday's decline in Nasdaq was on declining volume, and the NYSE stocks managed to hold on, so, it appears even if the markets fall further they should be able to find a bottom near the recent lows.

Mon. 4-24-00[before the opening]
As we said on Thursday, a two day retreat would not be all that negative as long as it was contained within two days. Our short-term model indicates further deterioration today. It seems v

Thur. 4-20-00[before the opening]
Yesterday's pullback should not be viewed as a negative development, as long as, it does not accelerate today. Given the magnitude of last week's decline the markets should be able to rally for more than just two days! If they do not, then Nasdaq will head towards 2950 in a hurry, while the SP500 will probably find support about 100 points below current levels. If you established -Friday or Monday- long positions and the market is negative today, you may consider taking profits before the long weekend.

Wed. 4-19-00[before the opening]
Yesterday's rally was very encouraging, we now rate the market a "trading buy." We believe the markets will rally up tp Thursday, although a one or two day pullback -given the sharp advance of the last two days- can't be ruled out. At this point we would use any pullback to establish new positions.

Tuesday 4-18-00[before the opening]
All rallies must start from somewhere, and they usually do with the "market leaders." However, in order for any rally to be sustainable, the secodary stocks MUST join in. Two Tuesdays ago, Nasdaq plunged 570 points and thank's to a handfull of stocks, it recovered all the loss in one day, to only give all of it up -and then some- 8 trading days later. Yesterday's advance was centered around 40-50 stocks such as ATMEL, AMAT, KLAC etc.(just like two weeks ago) while decliners outnumbered advancers by 2-to-1. That's okay for one day, but it can NOT go on for too long. As long as the secondary stocks join in today, the rally that started yesterday won't last very many days.

Monday 4-17-00[after the close]
No one really knows what might happen today, those who profess that they do, they might think so but they actually don't! Remember, two weeks ago -when everyone proclaimed that we had seen the bottom for the year(see daily market updates) we warned that in all the years we've been observing the markets when there was universal agreement about something, the market made fools out of everyone! We do not know what is going to happen today, but we do know if the markets drop another 600 pts we will be doing some buying. At this point the downside risk is at the most 7%-10%.

Friday 4-14-00[after the close]
In anticipation of the current market events we've been 70% in cash in all our managed accounts. We expect to be fully invested again next week, our preliminary analysis shows we're within 5% from a buy signal. Log on to our site tomorrow after 12:00noon PST for our complete weekly analysis

Friday 4-14-00[before the opening]
Nasdaq should find support around 3500. If it does not, the next stop will be between 2950 and 3050. In our weekly market update (see weekly update for week ending 4-7-00) our short-term model produced only one probability scenario for the SP500 -which so far has come out accurate- If the decline continues today, then the March lows -for the SP500- could be revisited. However. if the CPI report is friendly, then both markets will rally. If you want to go long, it may be better to do it thru the SPY and QQQ shares, rather than buying individual stocks today and wait until next week to be more selective. Visit us again tomorrow after 12:00noon PST for our "end of the week market update" and the probability scenarios for next week.

Thur. 4-13-00[before the opening]
Yesterday -when the SP500 fell thru 1485- our short-term model gave an "unconfirmed sell signal" on the index. If it continues its decline today, or, reverses on the upside today and backs down again tomorrow- then the "SELL" signal will be confirmed. Nasdaq keeps getting worse but most people keep buying calls, there is no sign that the "buying the dip" strategy has come into question. In our opinion, it will probably take more violent decline to cause total capitulation.

Wed. 4-12-00[before the opening]
Given how oversold Nasdaq is, a rally can take place any day. However, the trend is still down, and we believe that unless the SOX and XCI stocks get obliterated, a bottom won't be at hand

Tuesday 4-11-00[before the opening]
The 80% advance Nasdaq had experienced from Oct. to March was due to the extraordinary gains in the BTK,IIX, SOX and XCI stocks. The BTK and IIX stocks have been obliterated, but the SOX and XCI have managed to contain their declines. If Nasdaq begins another leg down, it is our opinion,that the SOX and XCI stocks will catch up on the downside. Anyway you look at it one couldn't put a positive spin on yesterday's decline. However, even if Nasdaq tanks further there is support between 3480 and 3650. We'll be buyers at those levels.